CONGRATULATIONS TO (PRESUMPTIVE) CONGRESSMAN-ELECT MONDAIRE JONES
The results are almost certain at this point: even with 50% of votes yet to be counted, Mondaire Jones's lead of 9,000 votes over second place looks insurmountable. Schleifer's second place total of about 7,000 votes is deceptive as it includes about 3,300 votes from the Monsey/New Square Orthodox "Block." Unlike the rest of the district, where about 50% of votes are absentee ballots that have yet to be counted, only 25% of Block voters sent in absentee requests. Projecting that Schleifer's non-Block votes will double as absentees are counted (see below), and add in the 1000 remaining Block voters, Schleifer will probably top off around 12,000 votes, well below Mondaire's current total of 16,000. But, you say, those absentees came early before Mondaire-mania ignited and should cut against him? Actually, not necessarily true: a full 30% of the absentee ballots that have arrived at Westchester BOE were logged on June 22 or later. These late arriving ballots were probably mailed after the PPP Poll showing Mondaire's lead was released on June 16 and, consequently, these voters were subject to the same late-building enthusiasm which propelled Mondaire's numbers on primary day. So Mondaire may lose a few points with absentee counting, but I don't expect him to fall much below 40% when the counting is final. Proofread those internship applications and resumes you GWU kids!
Mondaire Jones's inevitability renders the rest of these issues anti-climatic, but we still have a lot of votes to count and lot of data that will keep us obsessives occupied well into July.
As of this morning, Westchester BOE is reporting 18,309 voters from primary day and early voting. I suspect that this total does not include 1,208 early voters from Peekskill and White Plains. When the BOE posted the early votes list yesterday morning, I was surprised that the cities (WP and Peekskill) were listed separately from the towns. When I added the primary day and early vote total yesterday morning, I came up with 19,516: the difference from the county's total of 18,309 being exactly the WP and Peekskill 1,208 early votes. The BOE, however, since removed the early vote page. Hopefully I'm wrong. Rockland County reports 16,906 voters - presumably including both primary day and early voters, but no absentees.
So we have 35,215 (or 36,423 as I suspect) primary day and early votes accounted for and probably won't see anything more until the absentees numbers are released, presumably around July 4th weekend.
How many absentee votes are there to be counted? The spreadsheet I received from Rockland County listed 7,557 absentee ballots received through primary day, June 23. Westchester's BOE shows 27,288 absentees received through this morning, June 25. Presumably some of these absentees ballots will be discarded because the voters showed up on primary day but more will keep arriving this week. I don't know the extent of the lag between absentee ballots being received by the BOEs in the mail and getting logged in the spreadsheet. In any event, at least 34,845 absentee ballots remain to be counted, nearly equaling (and, eventually, probably exceeding) the number of votes recorded to date.
Most likely, we're going to hit 70,000 total votes which blows through even the most optimistic expectations when this race started, far surpassing the 63,334 who turned out for the 2018 Governor/AG primary although probably not reaching the 77,168 voters in the 2016 Clinton-Sanders presidential primary in our congressional district.
WOMEN VOTE! (but not for women)
As reported here repeatedly, Emily's List strongly backed Evelyn Farkas through contributions via its WOMEN VOTE! PAC, in the amount of $274,471. For some context, we do know from voting records that in Westchester, Democratic primary voters are about 60% female. Thus, it's surprising to see, at least in the preliminary numbers (which could change), that with four woman among the eight candidates receiving votes, that female candidates cumulatively received under 18% of the total vote. Let's play with these numbers for a moment: (1) start with the premise that 60% of the primary voters were female and (2) estimate that 70% of the voters for Farkas, Castleberry-Hernandez, Fine and Parker were women (the PPP Poll showed a voter gender gap with women choosing female candidates over male voters by 20% to 16%). Based on (1) and (2), we can project almost 80% of female voters likely voted for male candidates despite having several viable female candidates to choose from in the race. Again, this number could shift as absentees are counted, but the preliminary indications are surprising. What say you, Emily's List?
REGENERON UNDER THE MICROSCOPE (OR BINOCULARS?)
In light of recent allegations against the big Pharma company (Greenburgh's biggest private employer?), maybe it's for the best that Adam Schleifer won't pull off this election.
NEXT: a closer look at The Block and an attempt to put Mondaire Jones's remarkable June into context.